The Danish Presidency of the EU Council is pushing for major tax hikes on tobacco and nicotine products, according to a leaked draft revision of the Tobacco Excise Directive (TED) obtained by Brussels Signal. The proposal adopts the most stringent NGO recommendations, raising the minimum excise duty on heated tobacco products (HTPs) to EUR 360/kg, effectively aligning their tax burden with traditional cigarettes despite ongoing debates about relative health risks.

Denmark’s draft rejects the Commission’s dual tax system in favour of a single kilogram-based minimum rate and tightens product definitions by classifying all harvested tobacco as “raw tobacco”, a move intended to curb loopholes but criticised for potentially harming farmers and incentivising illicit trade. It also introduces a contentious method for taxing HTPs by counting products with 0.45–0.75g of tobacco as two items and those with 0.75–1.05g as three, significantly increasing the effective tax burden.

Countries with strong harm-reduction policies, such as Greece and Sweden, could face substantial price increases, with estimates of up to EUR 1.70 per pack in Greece and EUR 2.80 per can in Sweden. Member states remain deeply split: while some favour gradual rises and risk-proportionate taxation, others warn that sharp hikes could fuel black-market sales and disproportionately impact low-income consumers. Critics argue that the Danish Presidency’s stance risks widening existing divisions within the EU. Denmark assumed the rotating presidency on 1 July 2025, with Cyprus set to take over in January 2026.